Hi there

This is Felix writing. I wanted to share with you my outlook for the month of June, 2008.

I just recently sent in an order to my bank to go short on GBP/CHF. In my opinion, considering the current circumstances, the strongest currency out of the 8 majors is Swiss Frank, and the weakest is Great British Pound.

I actually initially called a short on GBP/CHF back in December of 2007. During that time, everybody was being crazy about shorting GBP/ JPY, which was definitely a good thing, but I remember talking over the telephone with my partner Sir Pipsalot, who is running the ForexDiamonds.com service, and I told him that I think a short on GBP/ CHF is even better than a short on GBP/JPY.

Well, to make the long story short, in 2008, on global scale, Swiss Frank gained 7.19%, and Great British Pound lost -3.07%. In comparison to Swiss Frank, the Yen only gained 0.48%.

Yep, it seems like everybody was talking about the strong Euro and strong Aussie in 2008, but in reality, Swiss Frank outperformed them both. Here are the detailed statistics on all 8 currencies:

CHF: +7.19%
AUD: +5.72%
EUR: +4.08%
JPY: +0.48%
USD: -2.32%
GBP: -3.07%
CAD: -5.18%
NZD: -5.19%

Looking at these statistics, you may be wondering how in the world I came up with these numbers? Well, the way I came up with them is I compared each currency against the 7 other currencies, then I derived an average from that. This way, we can not only know how a currency performed against one other currency, but we can know the average against all the other 7 majors.

I actually requested a programmer to build me a calculator to do that. This way I could see in one snapshot the overall picture for today or yesterday, or for last week, or last month, or any custom date. And we are actually going to offer this calculator as free tool for our ForexPeaceArmy community. Wait for an announcement on that sometime this month. I believe this tool would improve your trading.

Anyway, sorry about that, it seems like I got a bit carried away here. Let's go back to our GBP/CHF short.

Here is the situation. The UK economy has been put in a tough situation. Their inflation is going up, while their overall economy is slowing down. So there has been a lot of uncertainty about the UK interest rate which is at 5.00%, which is still very high, comparing to the rest of the world.

So what has happened, is in the month of June, GBP has actually gained value, because there were speculations of further rate hikes. You may be surprised to hear that, because it seems like GBP/USD is going down. The reason it's going down is that US dollar has gained even more value than GBP. But if you compare GBP against all the other 7 majors, and derive an average, it's actually gained around 1.06%, just in 10 days, which is a lot.

So to make the long story short, the market is currently pricing in rate hikes from the UK, which are highly unlikely, so if there is a cut in the next 3 months, it would be a big surprise, and the pound will lose a lot of value.

On the other hand, the Swiss government seems to be very happy about their interest rate of 2.75%, and the market is still pricing a possible cut by the end of the year. Regardless of it, the CHF has gained 1% in May, and already gained 1.86% in June comparing to the average of the other 7 majors.

So we are definitely seeing a solid trend of falling pound, and solid trend of rising Swiss Frank. Please note that the pound is falling, despite their high interest rate, and if they cut, it would only aggravate the fall. On the other hand, the Swiss Frank is rising, despite the fact that there are talks about possibility of rate cut by the end of the year. So if they decide to stay on hold, or even hike, it would only put fuel into already rising frank.

I hope I am making sense here, and of course once that calculator is posted, you will be able to have a very invaluable tool to your trading.

That's all I have to say for this month. Next month, July, one of my friends who is managing a fund of several hundred million promised to write up his take on the forex market I personally look forward to that analysis.

What do you think about what I said about Pound and Frank? I'd love to hear your feedback and your 10 cents on the issue.

Thanks
-Felix

Source:

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/

Hi there my Forex friend

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTOFoHhb7RE[/media]

Hi-Quality Preview/Review:
1) 7-11-2008R-P1.swf

Long-term Outlook:
2) 7-11-2008-UJEUoutlook1.swf

3) 7-11-2008-GUAUCADoutlook1.swf

Let's first review what happened today.

At 4:00 a.m. we UK Halifax came out -2.00% versus -1.00% expected. If you entered with SNW or any software like that, you should have been able to close your position with some profit. GBP/USD did not move a lot, it was like 20 pips move but still OK for scalping.

At 7:00 a.m. we had UK Interest Rate Statement which came out as expected so no news here.

At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. Initial Jobless Claims coming out. It came out really low but USD/JPY moved only by 20 pips. It seems this report lost its importance for now.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, July 11th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Employment Change coming out. It is expected to come out at 8K. If it comes out at 23K or higher, I would expect USD/CAD move lower pretty sharply by 40 pips or so. If it deviates more than that, then the move can be as big as 70 pips. If it comes out at -7K or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well. If it comes out at -20K or more negative, I would expect 70 pips move.

2. Friday, July 11th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Trade Balance. I will not be trading it.

3. Friday, July 11th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment. This is a tradable report but it comes out at 9:55 a.m. for some subscribers so I would trade it only if you are able to get this number early. Even if you get it early, that would be like 10 to 20 pips scalp. It is expected at 55.5. When it deviates by 2.5, then USD/JPY moves pretty well. Please watch the video for detailed explanation. If it comes out at 58 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 53 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move as well.

PLEASE ALSO WATCH Sir Pip's longer term outlook videos, links are always provided at the beginning of this post. A lot of people found them very useful. If you have any comments regarding that videos, please leave a comment. Sir Pips is working hard to improve our free tools so more and more people can benefit from them. For your convenience, here are the links so you don't even need to scroll up:

1) 7-11-2008-UJEUoutlook1.swf

2) 7-11-2008-GUAUCADoutlook1.swf

That's all for this week.

If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education where Sir Pips or Magister Pips are trading all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. They post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as they give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try. Worst case scenario, you will learn something and get all your money back.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot & Crazy Cat



The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat

Link di bawah ini adalah file excell yang berisi daftar news yang layak untuk di trade yang berasal dari 6 negara yang terkuat mata uangnya. Yaitu US, UK, Euro, Canada, New Zealand dan Australia.

File ini dibuat oleh salah satu aktivis News Trader di Forex Factory yaitu "BigMac" dan menurut saya sudah merangkum semua News yang tradeable. Tinggal kita update sekiranya ada News dimasa datang yang layak untuk kita perhatikan. 

Semoga bermanfaat

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