ASIA SUMMARY

- EURUSD Sideway saja melanjutkan UK dan US session. Mesti demikian EURUSD sedang set up untuk break 1.3800. Setidaknya dibutuhkan fundamental ataupun ekspektasi yang significant untuk dapat break level tersebut. Kita lihat nanti di sesi UK dan US hari ini.    

Asia again consolidated the moves from London and NY as the dollar downtrend and JPY cross up trend continues. We saw JPY crosses rally into the Tokyo fix at 8:55pm ET as EUR/JPY made another all-time high as it trades just shy of the 169 level. It was mostly off the back of USD/JPY as it made a brief move above the NY highs but following the fix we saw the JPY crosses settle back into their recent ranges. EUR/USD continues to move sideways as it sets up for a potential run above 1.3800. New Zealand retail sales were the only major economic release and came in at +1.2% month over month vs. expectations of .5%. Kiwi immediately rallied but found sellers at last week’s highs around the .7880 area. Interestingly, we have heard very little from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in the recent rally. Have they given up or are they setting the market up for another intervention? Looking forward, tomorrow is US retail sales, ending a week that has seen recent trends extend. The dollar continues to trade on the defensive and JPY crosses are near multi-year highs. In the near term there doesn’t appear to be any catalyst to end these trends. Upcoming Data Releases (London Session): France: (2:45am ET) Month over month Consumer Price Index expected .2% vs. previous .3%. UK: (4am ET) Bank of England’s Charles Bean speaks in London.

LONDON SUMMARY

- Setelah aksi taking profit di hari sebelumnya, London trader terlihat santai dan mulai bersiap-siap untuk melakukan weekend. Komentar dari official ECB pun di lewat yang terlihat justru adanya aksi taking profit oleh trader yang membuat EURUSD retrace. Meski demikian, EURUSD kembali naik setelah beberapa saat yang MENANDAKAN BAHWA US$ MASIH TIDAK DIINGINKAN. di London session ini tidak ada price action yang berarti terutama bila dilihat dari system 910-h4. Kita akan menghadapi US session dengan event di release US Retail Sales data. Saya akan stay away dari market mulai dari akhir sesi London ini mengingat dari hasil backtest sebaiknya kita  jangan ambil signal di weekend.

The final London Session of the week was tame relative to the rest of the week. Light volume was coupled with modest ranges across the board. The economic agenda was filled with data out of Europe, but none proved to have an effect on the market. Commentary from an ECB official was also bypassed by traders that seem eager to start the weekend. The themes of the week followed through today’s session, with continued pressure on the US Dollar.

The USD roared into the London open with buyers bidding the currency pair across the board. USDCHF and USDCAD spiked higher while EURUSD and GBPUSD fell. The aforementioned pairs simultaneously hit their respective highs and lows shortly after the open. Then, the USD reversed lower. This sell-off represented the week for two reasons. First, we consistently saw reversals of the London opening moves. Today, the same occurred. Second, the USD remains unwanted. Furthermore, there are few signs that the story is changing as the Dollar Index hits fresh lows on a daily basis.

Today’s main price action has centered in GBP. While EURUSD wanders around a 1.3765-90 range, GBPUSD rose a full 70 pips from the lows in the 2.0260 zone. This has knocked down a well-bid EURGBP, which has had an active week. The pair advanced from 0.6750 to 0.6800 on Tuesday with EURUSD screaming to new all-time highs. Following a retreat to 0.6760 on Wednesday, it bounced back towards 0.6795 on Thursday and now sits right where it began the week, at 0.6775. The carry trade has been out of the headlines this week. Today, JPY-related pairs were all quiet, with both USDJPY and EURJPY holding relatively tight ranges. Looking around the charts for other notable movers, traders will see impressive gains in NZDUSD and USDCAD, with the latter looking to utilize 1.0445 support to stage a rally.

NEW YORK SUMMARY

Menguatnya Stock Index di US  kemarin dan hari ini yang tembus fresh high setelah adanya decline di 2 hari yang lalu sedikit membantu US$ di perdagangan sesi US ini. EURUSD sempat testing low 1.3765 sebanyak 3 kali. Bisa dipastikan bila EURUSD bisa close di bawah 1.3765 maka EURUSD mulai bearish. Namun ternyata 1.3765 menjadi support dengan baik dan EURUSD kembali di kisaran 1.3780 dengan resistant di 1.3800. Terlihat jelas adanya usaha agar EURUSD tetap berada di bawah level 1.3800.

910-h4 menunjukkan signal BUY yang kuat dengan ada nya pattern bullish engulfing di sesi US semalam, namun sengaja tidak saya ambil mengingat kuatnya resistant dan saya pikir itu keputusan yang baik apalagi membuka posisi baru beberapa jam sebelum market close di weekend bukanlah ide bagus.

Untuk minggu depan, kita akan menghadapi beberapa data fundamental US yaitu PPI di hari Selasa dan CPI di hari Rabu. 2 data tersebut di prediksikan akan keluar dengan nilai yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan data sebelumnya yang mana hal ini sudah terantisipasi di harga sekarang. Menurut pandangan saya, bila data US ini lebih buruk dari perkiraan maka membuka posisi long yang baru di pair EURUSD sangatlah beresiko mengingat memburuknya kondisi ekonomi US ini sudah diperkirakan dan EURUSD terlihat sangat nyaman dan di push terus berada di bawah level 1.3800. Saya lebih berharap untuk data US keluar sedikit lebih baik dari harapan sehingga terjadi retrace di EURUSD untuk kemudian saya BUY THE DIP .

STATUS EURUSD :  

Daily masih bullish namun candle spinning top di hari Jumat ini yang membentuk formasi Stars menandakan bahwa Bulls dan Bears masih nego mengenai harga terkini Tinggal kita tunggu jika sampai terjadi Pattern Evening Stars maka Bearish akan dimulai atau retracement sementara akan terjadi. Tentunya posisi short cukup beresiko mengingat The Bulls still there. Setidaknya EURUSD harus close di bawah level kisaran 1.3760 di sesi US untuk memulai bearishnya. Dan Minggu depan adalah minggu yang sangat menarik tentunya. Happy weekend guys

NY Session SUMMARY

Intinya :
- Stock index US menguat dari hari sebelumnya yang diikuti oleh taking profit dari Middle East Name yang diikuti juga beberapa trader yang membuat pair US cross retrace.
- EURUSD recover sedemikian cepat dari retracement dan testing 1.3780 beberapa kali dan berusaha untuk break 1.3800 namun sepertinya level itu kuat sekali. Kita lihat nanti di session hari berikutnya.

Volatility in the financial markets resumed once again in today’s New York session. The main catalyst for the session’s price action was from economic data out of the United States in the morning. Trade Balance released this morning showed that the U.S. Trade deficit rose to $60.4 billion in May or 2.3% from the April reading. This was largely expected by most analysts. The release showed that exports rose in May signaling that the U.S. economy may likely strengthen. Also announced today was retail sales, which came in better than expected signaling that the U.S. consumer is still alive and kicking.

Despite positive economic data, the greenback’s reaction was mixed. Forex traders pushed the EUR/USD to another all time high, up around 40 pips, to flirt with the 1.3800 mark. EUR/USD later sold off and dropped lower into the 1.3750s area before closing the session back near 1.3785. The Canadian dollar also saw significant gains, as USD/CAD reversed off of the day’s highs by 80+ pips, sending it back below the 1.0460 level. However, the USD did manage to gain against some of its counterparts during the session. USD/JPY traded off London session lows by gaining nearly 60 pips, into the 122.50 area and GBP/USD gave back nearly 70 pips on the day before a relief rally late in the day put Cable back over the 2.0300 level.

The positive economic data encouraged traders to take riskier positions, fueling many carry pairs to catch a bid. EUR/JPY made yet another record high, but fell short of the 169.00 level as 168.85 seemed to offer some good resistance. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY were also higher during the session, both by 80+ pips, sending them to multi year highs.

U.S. equity markets also soared to record highs, as investors exited the bond market. This sent the yield on the 10yr back to 5.12% in late trading. The Dow posted its largest one day gain this year +283 on the better Retail Sales. The index closed at 13,861 with 14,000 only a stone’s throw away. Oil prices eased in the afternoon after being higher by more than $1 early in the session ended the day near flat around to $72.50. Gold was also higher during the New York session by almost 1%.

In tonight’s Asia session, Forex traders will be gearing up for New Zealand retail sales. Investors will also be looking for some follow through in high yielding carries, including a possible new record high for EUR/JPY, possibly pushing EUR/USD to unseen levels in the process

Hi Guys

 Apa kabar nih ? Kemarin hari yang luar biasa bukan hehehe..My favorite pair, EU, yang biasanya geraknya adem ayem kemaren bikin gebrakan hingga gerak 200 point. Kayak Om Bernaken Cut Interest Rate aja yah..hehehe..

Yang saya jengkel adalah, kemaren saya hanya melongo aja lihat pergerakan tersebut dan open dua lot buy. 1 untuk hedging posisi sell saya dan 1 lagi saya take profit saat hanya +13 karena begitu yakinnya bahwa market akan reverse karena EU udah di resistant. Dodol khan kekekekke...jadi sekarang saya masih ada posisi hedging -50 an pips.

Padahal niih..udah jelas 910-H4 kasih signal BUY yang kuat..seharusnya saya yakin bahwa profit bisa jauh lebih besar dan resistant pasti tertembus dengan momentum yang sebegitu besarnya. Tapi sekali lagi saya malah kurang disiplin menggunakan system yang sudah saya bangun dengan perjuangan selama 3 bulan lebih.  

OK, no problem. Masih ada hari esok yang pasti saya belajar 2 hal penting "Trust Your System" and "Anything can happen in Forex Trading".

Asli kemaren kaya liat sundel bolong di siang bolong. Ga percaya EU bisa gerak kaya gitu. Sayang saya ga punya akses bagus ke News Wire yang bagus. Yang pasti yang terjadi kemaren adalah beberapa peristiwa yang muncul bersamaan yang berakibat US melemah kuat dibanding mata uang lain. Ini adalah rentetan peristiwanya :

At 2am EDT the opening of the London Market created its normal spike in prices, but this time there was danger lurking underneath the surface. UK housing downgrades that wiped 10% off the value of UK Home Builders started Traders looking hard at the US Housing sector, and unless you own a pair of Rose Tinted Glasses that is not a pretty sight.

When DR Horton announced in the US that it was reporting earnings 40% lower than last year all Markets went on alert, but that paled into insignificance when news crossed the wires at 9am that the S&P were looking to downgrade $12b of US Sub-Prime Bonds. But wait there’s more; at 4pm EDT $5bn of Bond downgrades came from Moody’s, just to add fuel to the fire.

The affect of that move, if it were to happen, would be to force Institutions to have to liquidate positions in these Bonds, as they would no longer meet the rating criteria that are set for most Hedge Funds and Insurers to be able to hold. That would lead to a rapid liquidation of an already unstable Market, and any positive outlook for the housing sector would go straight down the drain.

The Yield on the 10 year Treasury note dropped to the lowest since February, falling 11 basis points, that in turn rocked the US $ as a lower Yield leads to a lower currency; it’s a bit like having an interest rate cut from the Fed.

Both rating agencies confirmed that they do not see the lending situation getting any better and until it does this kind of sub-prime, or ‘no credit qualification’, debt will just keep getting downgrades. A bleak picture for the housing sector and very little that can be done to resolve it, and a very uncomfortable picture for the $.

Ditambah lagi:

08:06 Full Navy statement: "Enterprise Carrier Strike Group provides us with the right assets at the right time as we continue to strengthen regional relationships that contribute directly to stability and the free flow of commerce in the region. Enterprise presence provides Navy power to counter the assertive, disruptive and coercive behavior of some countries, as well as support our soldiers and Marines in Iraq and Afghanistan."

08:04 The navy says this is to counter "assertive, disruptive and coercive behaviour of some countries

08:03 US navy is sending a third aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf

11:56 Lots of talk today about the subprime problems in the States. That idea had been moved from the headlines to the middle, but now is reemerging as entities start to mark to market their exposure to this sector. Look for this trend to continue. The stock market is showing an amazing amount of resiliency in the face of what’s going on. 

 Tambahan Info :

 The dollar's plunge against the euro and pound came as U.S. stocks fell, reacting to forecasts from retailers including Home Depot Inc., Sears Holding Corp. and homebuilder DR Horton Inc. that raised concerns about whether corporate America's growth will give stocks the boost investors have been hoping for.

Adding to the dour news on Wall Street was a move by Standard & Poor's Ratings Service to place credit ratings on 612 classes of residential mortgage-backed securities backed by U.S. subprime collateral under review for a possible downgrade. Subprime mortgage loans are those made to people with questionable debt repayment records.

Also Tuesday, a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in Cambridge, Mass., offered little insight into the central bank's next move, and instead focused on how the Fed makes its inflation-fighting decisions.

The Fed has left the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25 percent for a year now, after two years of steady increases.

That contrasts with the European Central Bank, which regularly raised rates and is expected to do so again to 4.25 percent in September; and the Bank of England, which last week increased its benchmark rate to 5.75 percent, a six-year high.

Yang pasti Fundamental bermain disini Namun yang membuat saya senang adalah 910-h4 telah bisa mengantisipasinya sebenarnya

So hari ini saya hanya liat-liat market aja. Takut mo OP. Dan lagi ampe bukaan US session ini market masih ranging aja karena memang tidak ada data fundamental US dan UK yang direlease hari ini. Tapi kalo 910-H4 bikin signal saya akan coba evaluasi.

 Happy trading

Jam 5 Sore 

Helloo guys :)

Hanya mau rekap aja apa yang saya lakukan hingga sore hari ini. Seperti saya post, kemaren saya open sell EU di 1.3615 berdasar trigger 910-h4. Dan sempat floating hingga -25 an. Meski demikian saya yakin hari kemarin tidak ada data ekonomi penting di US yang dapat terlalu mengerakkan pair tersebut  dan lagi EU dekat dengan resistant sehingga saya biarkan floating terus dengan keyakinan bahwa pair akan slow down dan saya akan tutup saat break event atau sedikit profit. Hasilnya tadi siang posisi sempat +15 an. Namun karena pada saat itu saya ada keperluan rapat dengan pimpinan maka saya tidak bisa perhatikan posisi tersebut dan lagi trailing stop sedang tidak saya pasang . Benar-benar sedikit sial hari ini. Akhirnya akibat direlease nya data UK Retail Sales yang sedikit berpengaruh baik ke GU maka EU ikutan naik hingga SL Hedging saya hit dan saat ini ada buy di 1.3648 dengan posisi hedging -33. Saat ini EU testing high. Kalo berdasar system 910-h4 ini adalah signal buy tapi posisi EU sedang ada di Resistant. Kita lihat apakah EU bisa break high  dengan harapan saya bisa ambil profit di posisi buy saya dengan cepat memanfaatkan momentum yang ada dan berharap kemudian EU akan drop kembali menjauh dari resistant.

Wish me luck.

Happy trading guys