US Non Farm Payroll / The Employment Report, is the most
waited news by traders every month. Its ability to move price such big
making its release time always waited by traders to get some profit.
This News released at Friday of the first week of the month.
But needs to be known that this News is the hardest news to trade. Need handiness, speed thinks
and ripe count to success trade this News.
Where need 4 important datas to analize price movement when this news released:
1. Previous point (last month NFP point )
2. Expected / Consensus / Predictions / Forecast point for this month
3. Actual point ( when News released )
4. Revision point ( revised point for last month point )
We can get previous's data and Consensus from Forex's calendar sites
like ForexFactory.com or ForexNews.com before news released.
And we get Actual point and Revision when news releaed. Revision
point not always occur. Most of time revision came lately and it can be a problem.
To Be easy, to trade this news follow these rules:
If Actual> from Consensus AND Previous therefore USD + / BUY USD'S Zona
If Actual< from Consensus AND Previous therefore USD / SELL USD'S Zona
More details as follows:
On 30 first second (Initial spike) usually price moves correspond to Actual appealed By Concensus (Actual vs Consensus).
Signal Actual vs Consensus
--------------------------
If Actual< Consensus = US -
If Actual> Consensus = US +
After 30 seconds price will move correspond to Actual Vs Previous.
Signal Actual vs Previous
-------------------------
If Actual< Previous = US -
If Actual> Previous = US +
More tricky trade happens when revision point come up.
If there is a revision the actual for Act Vs Prev follow this equation :
ACTUAL + (2 x (REVISION - PREVIOUS))
Quite tricky right :D
But i'm sure by seeing movement history on some Months you will
understand how to trade this News, specially when you take attention on
my explanation on 8 Dec 2006 NFP.
Usually, each 10K DEVIATION among ACT Vs CONS will move pair GBP / USD 15 pips.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Other thing that needs to be reassured is appreciative Unemployment
Rate that released coincides with NFP. Usually its point in line with
NFP. But we needs to be reassured if its coming up conflicting with NFP
number, so we need immediately close any position.
If Act< Cons therefore US Menguat
If Act> Cons therefore US Rans Down
Each Deviation 0.1% among Act and Cons can move pair 30pips.
If NFP'S aim and Employment Is Conflict and deviation Rate among Act
and Cons Employment Is rate is more than 0.2% soon just close position.
Unemployment's data Rate just ascendant at Initial Spike. If conflict
happening with act vs cons NFP therefore usually happens quickly move
which against act vs cons NFP. Hereafter price wait Revision released and then move corresponds to Act Vs Prev
HISTORIC MOVEMENT: NON FARM PAYROLL
April 6, 2007
Previous: 97K
Consensus: 120K 150K
Actual: 180K (BUY $ Estimation moves 45 pips)
Unemployment Rate: 4. 4% vs 4.6%( -0. 2% dev, BUY $ estimation moves 60 pips)
Revision: 113K VS 97 (BUY $)
Analisis:
All of released datas indicates $ will be strenghten no less than 60pips.
Result: Just exactly like analysis. BTW, revision released after first
minute, we see that at second minute price move almost get back to pre
release price. Obviously it makes we can take stand at the better
price.
March 9, 2007
Prev : 111K
Consensus: 95K~100K
Actual: 97K (NETRAL Zone)
Unemployment Rate: 4.5% vs 4.6% ( 0.1% dev, BUY $)
Revision: 146K (Bring Act to BUY $ Zone)
Analysis:
Actual comes in to Neutral Zone while release and Unemployment Is rate
gives BUY signal for $ so at first 30 second GBP / USD pair goes down
22 pips. Revision arises then, so actual become actual + 2 x (Rev-Prev)
= 167K makes actual come to BUY Zone for $ and adds moves again as
much 29 pips, so total move at first 3 minute is 51 pips.
Unfortunately price did not go further, it is because GBP/USD is so oversold because 4 days ago GBP / USD creates New Low since Jan 5 2007. And a lot of trader taking some profit after released NFP data.
After 10 minutes then GBP / USD moves back correspond to Act Vs Prev.
Feb 2, 2007
Prev : 167K
Consensus: 140K~160K
Actual: 111K
Revision: 206K
Analysis:
Actual comes in to SELL Zone $ while released and at first minute
bring GBP / USD up 38 pips. Revision arises 1 minute then and actual
become actual + 2 x (Rev Prev) = 189K makes actual come to BUY Zone $
so at 3rd minute moves to defy initial spike as much 35 pips. Usually,
if revision happening and zona change happening, therefore the movement
will very drastic according to actual afters count. But on this NFP day
Unemployment rate result have deviation 0.1% from consensus for SELL
(4. 6%vs4. 5%). So first 4 minutes BUY $ is defied. Even such, on
eventually, after 8 minutes price move corresponds to actual vs prev =
189K vs 167K and move as much as100 pips in the period of 30 minutes.
Jan 5, 2007
Prev : 132K
Consensus: 100K~135K
Actual: 167K
Revision: 154 K
Analysis:
Actual > Consensus : USD+
Actual > Previous: USD+
Revision > Previous: USD+
Result:
USD strenghten, without reverse / WHIPSAW.
Dec 8, 2006
Previous: 92K
Consensus: 100K~125K
Then we have these zones :
BUY USD ZONE
125K(CONS)-----------------------
NETRAL ZONE
100K(CONS)-----------------------
CONFLICT ZONE
92K(PREV)-----------------------
SELL USD ZONE
And then values below released :
Actual: 132K
Revision : 79K from 92K
At first minute price moved follow Act vs Cons = 132k VS
100k~125k, where Act at BUY Zone which make USD strengten +40 pips.
And then after a few second revision released which make Act become 132k
+ 2x(79K-92K) = 132K - 26K = 106K which bring Act to Netral Zone which make US DROP 40 pips and come back to initial price.
But, at the end, USD keep looking to Act vs Prev which is 106K vs 92K and strenghten 40 pips.
And below is the chart:
REMEMBER!! This is a GBP/USD chart, when I say USD+ that means GBP/USD Drop and vice versa. 
Petunjuk:
When you use trap (BUY STOP + SELL STOP)
to trade this news and Actual come to Conflict Zone, one of your order
must be executed, just close immediately that opened position no matter
profit or loss and close the other order too. Then start counting
actual + (2 x( Revision - Previous)), then follow your counting result
for act vs prev signal.
Nov 3, 2006
Previous: 51K
Consensus: 120K~145K
BUY USD Zone
145K(cONS)-----------------------
NETRAL Zone
120K(CONS)-----------------------
CONFLICT Zone
51K(PREV)-----------------------
SELL USD Zone
Actual: 92K
Revision : 148K from 51K.
First price follow Act vs Cons = 92 vs 120~145 which is SELL USD or BUY GBP/USD for USD -30 pips.
But Act in Conflict Zone so price will go to initial point.
Then revision come up so Act become act+(2x(Rev-Prev)) = 92+(2 x 148-51 ) = 92 + 2x93 = 278.
So Act vs Prev = 278 vs 51 which means BUY USD or SELL GBP/USD -100 pips.
Oct 6, 2006
Previous: 128K
Consensus: 120K
BUY USD Zone
128K(PREV)-----------------------
CONFLICT ZONE
120K(CONS)-----------------------
SELL USD ZONE
Actual: 50K
Revision : 188K from 128K.
First price follow Act vs Cons = 50 vs 120 which is SELL USD or BUY GBP/USD for USD -60 pips.
When revision come up, act become act+(2x(Rev-Prev)) = 50+(2 x 188-128 ) = 92 + 2x60 = 212.
So Act vs Prev = 212 vs 128 which means BUY USD or SELL GBP/USD - 50 pips.
Sep 1, 2006
Previous: 113K
Consensus: 120K
Actual: 128K
No Revision
Analisa:
Actual > Consensus : USD+
Actual > than Previous: USD+
Hasil:
USD strenghten, no reverse / WHIPSAW.
Aug 4, 2006
Previous: 121K
Consensus: 143K
Actual: 113K
No Revision
Analisa:
Actual < Consensus : USD-
Actual < than Previous: USD-
Hasil:
USD strenghten, no reverse / WHIPSAW.
Jul 7, 2006
Previous: 75K
Consensus: 175K
Actual: 121K
No revision
Analisis:
Actual < consensus: USD-
Actual > Previous: USD+
Whipsaw can be occur and price will follow Actual vs Previous on next minute.
Result:
USD going weaker with no whipsaw. Price keep
moving follow Actual vs Consensus. There is an indication the 2 days
before traders buy USD so strong due to released ADP point. And today
Act point which weaker then cons used by traders as excuse to sell USD
and taking profit.
But
I'm sure no matter how you trade you still got profit right specially
when you did not close your position even when you know actual come up
at conflict zone ;)
Jun 2, 2006
Previous: 138K
Consensus: 180K
Actual: 75K
Analisis:
Actual < consensus: USD-
Actual < Previous: USD-
Result:
USD-, no whipsaw
May 5, 2006
Previous: 211K
Consensus: 200K
Actual: 138K
Analisa:
Actual < consensus: USD-
Actual < Previous: USD-
Hasil:
USD-, no whipsaw
Apr 7, 2006
Previous: 243K
Consensus: 185K
Actual: 211K
Analisis:
Actual > consensus: USD+
Actual < Previous: USD-
Whipsaw can be occur and then price will follow Actual vs Previous.
Result:
Just like analisis.
Mar 10, 2006
Previous: 193K
Consensus: 220K
Actual: 243K
Analisis:
Actual > Consensus : USD+
Actual > than Previous: USD+
Result:
USD + , noreverse / WHIPSAW.
Feb 3, 2006
Previous: 108K
Consensus: 275K
Actual: 193K
Analisis:
Actual < consensus: USD-
Actual > Previous: USD+
Whipsaw can be occur and then price will follow Actual vs Previous.
Resul:
Exactly as analisis
Jan 6, 2006
Previous: 215K
Consensus: 215K
Actual: 108K
Analisa:
Actual < consensus: USD-
Actual < Previous: USD-
Hasil:
USD-, no whipsaw 
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