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Forex News Trading Trigger - Jum'at 18 Januari 2007


This is Sir Pips.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.


YouTube - Forex News Day Trading Signal - 01/18/08


Let's first review what happened earlier today.

It was a strange week, lots of things not working well. We had a huge nice sell trigger on Housing Starts and we set lower trigger even more low than it should be because people expected bad numbers. We got, in fact, a bad number, and it was the worst one since, I believe, 1980, and Housing Starts I believe it is the most important housing indicator. The Initial jobless claims was conflicting, it came out 30 K lower so it was something positive but it should not overridden that in normal conditions but on USD/JPY we traded down from 106.80 down to 106.63 so only 17 pips, and then it reversed and completely went the other way. I took a good chunk of loss on that one. Nothing was working correctly.

Much detailed information is available on the video. I strongly recommend you to watch it.

Then we had New Zealand retail sales at 4:45 a.m. The expectation was 0.7 so we had 1.3 positive trigger so it should be very tradable but the upside move was quite limited. We did pop up very fast about 35 pips but after retracement you expected to go back there, and instead we were trading sideways. This deviation was one of the biggest I have ever seen. Things are not making sense with respect to fundamental signals.

1. Friday, January 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Friday we are going to have UK Retal Sales coming out. I would be conservative here although UK reports performed quite well in the past. Last few weeks we had a few UK reports that came out very close to expectations so the London session has not really been tested; the weird price action was happening during New York session. I still think there is a good chance this report should go well. Also, out of 12 reports, there were two 0.1 deviations that were definitely not tradable. There is also one 0.6 deviation that did not work well as it went up by 25 pips and then it went the other direction. Every other report even with 0.2 deviation worked really well with a very profitable price action, and that was 9 trades like that so it is hard for me to be pessimistic here. You can try to trade 0.2 deviation but I will use 0.3 deviation here. If the UK Retail Sales m/m comes out at 0.5 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect at least 35 pips and 50 pips, respectively. If it comes out at -0.1 or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect the same targets.

Well, that would be all for this week.

If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

 

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Forex News Trading Trigger - Rabu 16 Januari 2007


This is Sir Pips.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

click here to watch the video


Let's first review what happened on Tuesday.

On Tuesday we had two reports that were worthy watching and possibly trading.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK CPI y/y headline coming out. It came out 0.1 higher than expected so it did not let us trade it. Because at the same time the core number was down by 0.1 it was definitely a no trade. The price went up about 20 pips on the headline number and then it retraced completely and went the other way because of the core number. It was a good idea to stay away.

Then we had German ZEW. Nothing really to take about.

Then we had U.S. Retail Sales X Autos coming out. We were looking to sell USD/JPY if it came out -0.6 or lower with -0.1 consensus. Although the trigger was not hit, we did get a negative deviation but I did not think it would be enough to enter the trade. USD/JPY moved about 92 pips in the first hour of the report. However, I personally stayed out as it was a no trade for me. Well, better safe than sorry, there will be plenty other opportunities.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK

At 4:30 a.m. we will have the U.K. Average Earnings + Bonus. I will be trading it with 0.2 trigger. If it comes out at 4.1 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD. If it comes out at 3.7 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD. If there is a conflict with unemployment rate, I would stay out of the trade. Ideally, you want to see unemployment number coming out as expected or coming the opposite direction than the Average Earnings. Last month we had 0.2 deviation and it moved the market about 30 pips in the first couple of minutes.

2. Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA

Then at 8:30 we will have U.S. Core CPI coming out. I would trade this on EUR/USD. We did not have a lot of deviations on the core CPI but if we get a deviation, I believe the EUR/USD will perform best. Stay away from USD/JPY on this report as it is a quite unpredictable pair on this report. On 0.1 trigger expect about 40 pips price action. If the Core CPI (also known as CPI X Food and Energy) comes out at 0.3% or higher, it would be good for the dollar so I would sell EUR/USD. If it comes out at 0.1 or lower, it is going to be bad for the dollar, and I would buy EUR/USD. As always, keep an eye on y/y and headline numbers. Sometimes when the core number is flat but headline gives a big deviation, you may see a nice move. Also, if you see conflicts, you may want to exit early although the core should be able to take over the headline number.

3. Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA

At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC Index coming out. If it comes out at 20 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY. If it comes out at 120 or higher, I would buy the USD/JPY. This indicator can be traded only if there is a big surprise. If the trigger is hit, expect about 30 pips move.

4. Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA

Then at 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. This is not a big deal although sometimes you can scalp a few pips. Don't worry about this one too much.

5. Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND

Then we will have New Zealand CPI quarterly release. It is expected to come out at 1%. With this indicator you can use 0.2 trigger. If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, it would be strong for the New Zealand dollar and you want to buy NZD/USD, looking for 40 to 50 pips or more in the first hour. If it comes out at 0.8% or lower, that would be weak for the New Zealand dollar and you may want to sell NZD/USD and expect 40 to 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

6. Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA

Then we will have Australian Employment Change. It is expected to come out at 20K. You can use 15K trigger on this report. If it comes out at 35K or higher, I would buy AUD/USD, looking for 30 pips or more. If it comes out at 5K or lower, I would sell AUD/USD, looking for 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

That's all for Wednesday.

If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot



The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat

 

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Forex News Trading Trigger - Jumat 11 Januari 2007


This is Sir Pips.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.


YouTube - Forex News Day Trading Signal - 01/11/08
Close



Let's first review what happened yesterday.

The UK Trade Balance barely deviated so we had a no trade. As simple as that.

Then the UK kept the rates unchanged at 5.50% as expected by most economists. I said it could give some strengthening to the British pound but it would not be reliable. What happened was there was a 60 pips spike up; however, it last only for 15 minutes before starting retracing and making new lows. You could have made some pips out of it but I think it would be unnecessary risk to take. Nevertheless, if you made money anyway, congratulations.

The Euro Zone also left the rates unchanged so another no trade here.

At 8:30 Trichet did not say anything surprising so it was a yawn speech and also a no trade.

The Initial Jobless Claims was at least quite interesting. The consensus was modified down from 345 K to 340 K. Once I saw that, I corrected it on the daily signals and provided new triggers. If you traded old triggers, it would be a loss; if you used a new set of triggers like we did in Diamonds room, it would be a no trade. We had 12 pips price action up, and then it started going the other way. I hope you either adjusted your trigger or at least had an appropriate stop loss. A good lesson that you might learnt from it is to make sure the consensus did not change right before the report as this text is usually written and send hours or sometimes even days before the report.

The Building Permits in Canada was also very interesting. It came in very negative: -9.9%, completely erasing the surprising gain that happened last month. We were looking to sell at -6.7% or lower. The price moved very quickly so frankly speaking when trading myself I missed a good entry here although it was still possible to make decent pips. To make the long story short, overall it moved 50 pips within 1 hour.

At 1 p.m. Bernanke was scheduled to testify. His comments were leaked at 12:16 p.m. In the first minute or so it moved 8 pips as it was unexpected but as people starting realizing what happened, EUR/USD moved up from 4740 to 4810 so about 70 pips move in the 45 minutes leading up to the report. If you had a news provider and you were aware of this, and in fact you made a trade, good for you. If you, however, showed up at 1 p.m. and looked at comments, you already missed the boat.

Let's now talk about Friday.

At 4:30 a.m. we will have U.K. Industrial Production. It is expected to come out at 0.1%. I recommend trading a 0.4 trigger although a 0.3 deviation sometimes work OK. If there is a 0.4 deviation either way, you can expect 40 pips price action on GBP/USD. So, if it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY. On the other hand, if it comes out at -0.3% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY or even GBP/CHF.


At 7 a.m. we will have Canadian Employment Change coming out. This is one of the strongest and most powerful indicators of the month. It is expected to come out at 15 K. If there is a 15 K deviation, I think it is worthy to trade. So, if it comes out at 0 K or negative, I would buy USD/CAD. If it comes out at 30 K or higher, you want to sell USD/CAD. The amount of price action solely depends how big the deviation is. If it is just 15K deviation, I would expect about 45 pips price action on USD/CAD. If it is 30 K or more, you can expect 70 or 100 pips on USD/CAD. What I noticed is over past 15 months we saw a lot of very positive deviations on CAD employment change so you may want to sell a small unit of USD/CAD right before the report and set up an appropriate SL in case it comes out the other way.


We also have U.S. and Canadian Trade Balance and U.S. Import Price Index at 8:30 a.m. I would focus on the Canadian Trade Balance. Of course, what happen on Canadian Employment Change may influence this trade but anyway I think 1.0 trigger is sufficient to trade the Canadian Trade Balance. If it comes out at 4.2B or higher, you may want to sell USD/CAD. If it comes out at 3.2 B or lower, you may want to buy USD/CAD. I would look at 30 pips price action on that report. The U.S. Trade Balance and Import Price Index are not big movers. If anything, they may either help a little or if they conflict, they will give you a good price to get in Canadian Trade Balance.


That would be all for Friday.

If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot


The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat

 

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Forex News Trading Trigger - Kamis 3 Des 2007


This is Sir Pips.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

Hi-res: 01-03-2008.swf

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

The first indicator we had was UK Manufacturing PMI. Since there was some deviation, the price moved about 30 pips but it did not hit our trigger so it was a no trade.

Then we had U.S. ISM Manufacturing which hit a big downside trigger. It came out at 47.7 so it was the lowest reading since sometime in 2003, and it was a big buy signal. EUR/USD traded in the range of 1.4665 to 75 for quite a bit so there was plenty time to get in quite relatively close to the pre-release price. Then, it went up to 1.4750 within 90 minutes so it moved almost 90 pips from that level without much retracement at all. It was awesome trading opportunity, and I hope you made money on this. Due to a huge deviation, even USD/JPY worked very well moving 158 pips although I did not recommend you to trade that pair. GBP/USD did not react too well as pound was much weaker than euro before the report.

Then we had U.S. FOMC Minutes. We got what we were expecting: it was dovish but there were some mixed comments there. I thought it would weaken the dollar but it did not really end up that way. It was just not clear enough to generate decent price actions.

Tomorrow we will have two trades I will be looking at.

1. Thursday, January 3rd, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA

At 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. That is expected to come out at 47.5 K, and I see 33K expected from another source so that numbers may change as we are approaching to the report. Last month it came out at 189K, and it was a great trade. To be safe, a reading of -20K or more negative would be weakening the U.S. dollar in general. A reading of 100K or higher would be strengthening the U.S. dollar. I would trade this on USD/JPY. I would look to buy USD/JPY on reading of 100K or higher, and sell USD/JPY on a reading of -20K or more negative.

2. Thursday, January 3rd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Unemployment Claims which is expected to come out at 345K. It is a weekly indicator and recently more people are focused on it. If it comes out at 360K or higher, that should be weakening for the dollar, and it would constitute a sell signal on USD/JPY, good for 15 to 40 pips. If it comes out at 330K or lower, it would be strengthening the U.S. dollar, and it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, good for 15 to 40 pips.

That would be all for tomorrow.

If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot

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Forex News Trading Trigger - Rabu 19 Des 2007


This is Sir Pips.

Here is my video where I review what happened earlier today and I preview how to trade tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

I am sorry but I this time I need you to watch the video.

Next signal will definitely be available in the text format as well. I am sorry for inconvenience.

To watch the video, please click on it, and then click the play icon.


YouTube - Forex News Day Trading Signal - 12/20/07
 

Thanks
Sir Pips

 

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