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Hi my dear Trader 
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on
"play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you
to watch it.
Let's first talk about Tuesday.
First, we had UK CPI. The y/y came out flat and the core number came
out lower. We had 0.2 deviation on core CPI but we were looking for
such deviation on y/y headline. The GBP/USD moved down but retraced
completely so it was good we were not in this trade.
Then we had Canadian CPI, and we were focused on the core number. We
got a sell signal on USD/CAD, and although the price went the right way
right on the beginning, overall we got a full retracement on this. If
you entered with the SNW, you probably were able to grab some pips.
Otherwise, it was hard to make anything.
Then we had FOMC meeting. They cut the rates by 75 bp which was a no
trade trigger. The situation changed a little right before the report
where more people were expecting a cut of 1% so a cut of .75% was quite
disappointing. Nevertheless, it was a no trade based on my signal from
yesterday although we made a good money on the Diamonds room. Watch the
video for more details.
Let's talk about Wednesday.
1. Thursday, March 19th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 we will have U.K. Average Earnings and BOE Minutes. I will not
be focusing on the Average Earnings at all, and I will stay focused on
the BOE Minutes. It is expected the vote will be 8:1 in favor of no cut
decision. Chances are at least one member voted for a cut. If the vote
was 9:0 for no cut, I think it would be strengthening for the pound,
and assuming there is no conflict from the average earnings, it would
be a buy signal on GBP/USD, and if the commentary is supporting, you
can expect 40 to 50 pips move. 6:3 or 5:4 vote would give a sell signal
on GBP/USD, and I would also expect 40 to 50 pips move on GBP/USD. If
the average earnings deviates by 0.2 against the BOE Minutes vote, I
would stay away. Watch out for comments as they will influence the move
a lot.
That's all for tomorrow.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education
as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room,
and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I
post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and
exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk
for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful,
then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am
pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
*FPA Announcement*
To all FPA members. We are preparing to hold our first contest, with a
first prize of $250. We hope to complete this while the dollar still
has some value.
Please visit our Contests Area ( Contests Area - Forex Peace Army Forum
) where you can make suggestions for future contests, vote in a poll
about how you would prefer to receive prize money, and will soon see
the rules and regulations for FPA Contest #1.
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Hi my dear Trader
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on
"play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you
to watch it.
1) HI-res.: 03-18-2008a.swf
2) HI-res.: 03-18-2008b.swf
I am sorry there was no signal yesterday; I did not feel well last
weekend so I just took a day off. What a day was that that's another
story - USD/JPY lost about 5% of its value in just a day so that was a
big trading opportunity for sure.
Going back to Friday, we had a big signal on U.S. CPI but the market
reacted very strangely, and it was very tough to trade. I personally
lost on the initial price action, and then made some back on other
trades following that losing one. Dollar strengthening on lower CPI did
not make any sense but the market is tough right now and I guess
anything can happen.
There is a lot of interesting stuff on the video which would make this
signal extremely long, and I know from a fact that people want to see
these signals short and straight to the point, so if you are interested
in more details, please watch both videos.
Let's talk about tomorrow.
1. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI y/y coming out. It is expected to come
out at 2.5%. We should trade 0.2 trigger on this one. If it comes out
at 2.7%, that would be strengthening GBP/USD. If it comes out at 2.3%
or lower, it would be weakening the GBP/USD. If 0.2 trigger is hit, I
would expect about 40 to 50 pips move either direction. The core CPI
must deviate the same direction. If it conflicts (mostly because of oil
prices), I would recommend to stay out or exiting your spike trade very
quickly. The initial move should happen on the headline number but in
order to keep it moving the same direction, the Core CPI cannot
conflict.
2. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI coming out. It is expected to
come out at 0.3%. I will use 0.2 trigger as well. If it comes out at
0.5% or higher, it would be a good selling opportunity on USD/CAD, and
I will be looking for 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be a good buying
opportunity on USD/CAD, good for 40 pips in the first hour as well.
Similarly to UK CPI, you want to avoid any conflicts between the core
and the headline number. In order to stay in a trade, the two numbers
at least cannot conflict.
3. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Housing Starts and PPI. The PPI is not a big
deal, I would not worry about it. The real story is if the housing
number comes out high, and by high I mean high. If it is a case, then I
think it would be a good buying USD/JPY opportunity. I think a good
trigger would be if it comes out at 1080 K or higher. If this trigger
is hit, I would expect 35 to 40 pips move in the first hour of the
report.
4. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
The big, highly anticipated event is the FOMC Interest Rate decision.
The original consensus was they were going to cut the rates by 75 bp
(0.75%) from 3.00% down to 2.25%, and then they expected a cut of 50
bp, and now some of people expect them to cut by 1% (100 bp) or more.
The FED fund futures increased probabilities, and now they are calling
for 100% chance of 1% cut or more, and 22% chance of 1.25% cut,
drastically lowering their interest rates expectations. Economists are
uncertain as well, and they are looking for 0.75% cut in average, with
some of them looking for 0.50% cut and some others looking for full 1%
cut. I think the best way to handle it is to set expectations to 0.75%
cut as I believe if they cut by 75 bp it will be very hard to tell if
it is going to be supportive or disappointment for the market so most
likely I will stay out of the market. I think it is tradable if they
cut the rates by "only" 0.5% (50 bp) or if they cut by 1% (100 bp) or
more. I think the simplest way is to trade AUD/USD (yeah, strange) as
this pair worked very well in the past. If they cut the rates by 50 bp
or less, that would be a sell signal on AUD/USD, look for 50 pips move
in the first 15 minutes of the report. If they cut the rates by 1% or
more, I would go long (buy) on AUD/USD, looking for 50 pips or more in
the first 15 minutes of the report. Alternative way to trade it would
be EUR/USD or EUR/JPY *BUT PLEASE WATCH the video* for more details.
Also, pay attention to any possible "tape bombs" that may happen.
AGAIN, I wanted to keep this email short for fast reading, and it is
meant for less advanced traders but there is A LOT OF interesting stuff
and tips for a little more advanced traders so if you are one of them I
encourage you to watch both videos.
That's all for tomorrow.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education
as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room,
and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I
post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and
exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk
for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful,
then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am
pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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Hi my dear Trader
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on
"play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you
to watch it.
Let's first talk what happened earlier today.
At 5:30 a.m. we had UK Trade Balance coming out. It came out almost exactly as expected so it was a no trade.
Then at 4:45 p.m. we had New Zealand Retail Sales coming out. It came
out a little higher but not high enough to enter us into a trade. We
got a little appreciation on NZD today, signaling that the core number
might be a little more in focus now.
At 8:30 p.m. we had Australian Employment Change. The Employment Change
deviated by +21.7 K, giving us a nice buy signal. Also, the
unemployment rate deviated by -0.2%, helping us this time. The price
moved up by 45 pips in a matter of seconds, and then retraced by about
50%, giving us a good place to enter long on AUD/USD.
Let's now talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, March 13th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Core Retail Sales coming out, also known
as Retail Sales X Autos. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. If it
comes out at 0.6% or higher then I would buy USD/JPY, looking for 40 to
45 pips of a price action. On the sell side I would be looking for a
little wider trigger so if it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I
would sell USD/JPY and look for 40 pips of a price action. Keep in mind
that levels 100.00, 100.50 and 101.00 can bounce the price well so be
careful around that places. It is a good place to take a profit and a
bad place to enter a new trade hoping that they will break easily. It
just may take some time to break them through. Keep in mind we will
have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims coming at the same time, and it is
more and more in focus right now. It is expected it will come out at
357K, and I think a 20K trigger would be significant enough to help or
screw up the retail sales trade. If it comes out at 377K or higher, it
will be weakening the U.S. dollar; if it comes out at 337K or lower,
that would be positive for the USD/JPY. Avoid conflicts here.
2a. Thursday, March 13th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
At 9:00 we will have Interest Rate decisions coming out of Switzerland.
It is expected they will keep the rates at 2.75%. The best pair to look
at is USD/CHF. If they raise the rates to 3.00%, it would be a sell
signal on USD/CHF and look for 50 pips or more of a price action in the
first hour of the report. If they cut the rates to 2.50%, it would be a
buy signal on USD/CHF, good for 50 pips or more in the first hour of
the report.
2b. Thursday, March 13th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
Also at 9:00 we will have Norwegian Interest Rate decision coming out.
It is more likely to surprise the market, and it is expected they will
keep the rates unchanged at 5.25%. There are a few economists calling
for a rate hike, and last Monday the CPI underline came out higher than
expected by 0.3% so this might be a valid opinion. Moreover, last week
Sweden also did a surprise rate hike so Norway can follow soon. If they
hike the rates to 5.50%, it would be a sell signal on EUR/NOK or
USD/NOK, and look for 600 pips move. If they hold the rates at the same
level, it might be worth a speculative buy on EUR/NOK or USD/NOK
(especially with a strength of the Euro) and try to grab 100 to 200
pips and get out quickly. However, be extra careful with that. If they
cut the rates, which would be a huge surprise, it would be a great buy
signal on EUR/NOK or USD/NOK, and I would look for 600 to 700 pips
move.
That's all for tomorrow.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education
as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room,
and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I
post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and
exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk
for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful,
then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am
pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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Hi my dear Trader
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on
"play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you
to watch it.
First, we had Sweden CPI. Everything came out a little above
expectations. The underline y/y number came out at 2.2% versus 2.0%
expected; in general everything came out either 0.1 or 0.2 higher than
expected. However, the price did not move too much. It was about 250
pips move which is not that much for that report. We made a small
profit on the Diamonds room.
Then we had German ZEW. I recommended not to trade it so it was a no
trade. Watch video for additional details regarding this report.
At 8:30 a.m. we had Canadian and U.S. Trade Balance coming out. The
Canadian TB came out too close to expectations (3.3 B) to sell USD/CAD,
and the U.S. Trade Balance came out pretty close to expectations. What
screw everything up was the Fed surprised announcement injecting 200 B
dollars of liquidity into the financial markets to help with liquidity
crisis. USD/JPY shoot up about 50 pips in about a minute, and then it
moved even higher. If you want to learn more about it, please watch the
video.
Let's now talk about Wednesday.
1. Wednesday, March 12th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have UK Trade Balance (visible) coming out. It is
expected to come out at -7.5 B. I would use a pretty conservative
trigger of 1 B (1,000 M) on this. If it comes out at -8.5 B or more
negative, I would sell GBP/USD. If it comes out at -6.5 B or less
negative, I would buy GBP/USD. If the trigger is hit, I would look for
35 to 40 pips of a price action. Keep in mind that 1 B deviation is
pretty rare so expect a no trade here.
2. Wednesday, March 12th, 2008 (5:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 5:45 p.m. we will have New Zealand Retail Sales coming out. I think
a "regular" retail sales (NOT core) is more in focus. It is expected to
come out at 0.3% versus 0.1% last month. I believe a trigger of 0.7
should be sufficient on this. If it comes out at 1% or higher, I would
buy NZD/USD; If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I would sell
NZD/USD, looking for 40 pips of a price action.
3. Wednesday, March 12th, 2008 (8:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 8:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change coming out.
It is expected to come out at 15K, like every other month - they always
expect 15 K
Actually it is great because it gives great trading opportunities. I
will use 20K trigger on this. If it comes out at 35 K or higher, I
would buy AUD/USD. If it comes out at -5K or more negative, I would
sell AUD/USD. If my trigger is hit, expect about 50 pips price action.
Watch out for an unemployment rate. It is expected to come out at 4.2%.
A 0.2 deviation is a good enough to move the market well. If it is
conflicting with the employment change, I would stay away (or get out
if you are already in trade using the SNW). Ideally, with a positive
deviation on employment change you want to see a negative deviation on
the unemployment rate, OR with a negative deviation on employment
change you want to see a positive deviation on the unemployment rate -
such combinations would help you to make even more pips.
That's all for tomorrow.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education
as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room,
and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I
post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and
exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk
for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful,
then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am
pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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Hi my dear Trader
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on
"play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you
to watch it.
Let's first review what happened on Monday.
The Norway underline CPI y/y came out at 2.2% versus 1.9% expected, and
m/m 1.0% versus 0.6% expected. The headline numbers came out as
expected. We got a good sell signal and the market moved by about 500
pips although it was tough to make any money on the afterspike.
At 5:30 a.m. EST we had UK PPI and Industrial Production. The
Industrial Production came out too close to expectations to enter any
trade so officially it was a no trade. The price action was very
confusing so it was better to stay out.
At 8.01 p.m. EST we had UK RICS House Price Balance. The number came
out pretty well; however, I had recommended not trading it and it was a
good idea to stay out. Nothing interesting here at all.
Let's now talk about tomorrow.
1. Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 4:30 a.m. we will have Swedish CPI coming out. It is a very similar
situation to yesterday's Norway CPI - your primary focus should be on
the underline inflation. The underline y/y inflation is expected to
come out at 3.3%, and the m/m is expected to come out at 0.5%. The
headline number y/y is expected to come out at 3.2% and the m/m at
0.6%. If the CPI underline y/y comes out at 2.5% or higher, I would
sell USD/SEK or EUR/SEK. If it comes out at 1.9% or lower, I would buy
USD/SEK or EUR/SEK. I would prefer to trade EUR/SEK but if you don't
have it, then try to trade USD/SEK. If the trigger is hit, I would
expect about 400 pips move on this. If you are not able to trade this
report with your broker, don't worry - we have so many other good
reports every single month.
2. Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 (6:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 6:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW coming out. I will skip this one
as it was not tradable recently. Last month with a good deviation the
price moved only by 12 pips.
3. Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. and Canadian trade balance coming out.
As of right now, the Canadian Trade Balance is expected to come out at
2.6 B. I would use 1.0 trigger on this. If it comes out at 3.6 B or
higher, I would sell USD/CAD. If it comes out at 1.6 B or lower, I
would buy USD/CAD. U.S. Trade Balance is expected to come out at -59.5
B. I don't think the U.S. indicator is tradable so I would just focus
on the Canadian trade balance; however, watch out for the U.S.
indicator and avoid any big conflicts here.
That's all for tomorrow.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education
as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room,
and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I
post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and
exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk
for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful,
then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am
pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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Trading foreign currencies is a challenging and potentially profitable
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