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Hi there 
This is Felix writing. I wanted to share with you my outlook for the month of June, 2008.
I just recently sent in an order to my bank to go short on GBP/CHF. In
my opinion, considering the current circumstances, the strongest
currency out of the 8 majors is Swiss Frank, and the weakest is Great
British Pound.
I actually initially called a short on GBP/CHF back in December of
2007. During that time, everybody was being crazy about shorting GBP/
JPY, which was definitely a good thing, but I remember talking over the
telephone with my partner Sir Pipsalot, who is running the
ForexDiamonds.com service, and I told him that I think a short on GBP/
CHF is even better than a short on GBP/JPY.
Well, to make the long story short, in 2008, on global scale, Swiss
Frank gained 7.19%, and Great British Pound lost -3.07%. In comparison
to Swiss Frank, the Yen only gained 0.48%.
Yep, it seems like everybody was talking about the strong Euro and
strong Aussie in 2008, but in reality, Swiss Frank outperformed them
both. Here are the detailed statistics on all 8 currencies:
CHF: +7.19%
AUD: +5.72%
EUR: +4.08%
JPY: +0.48%
USD: -2.32%
GBP: -3.07%
CAD: -5.18%
NZD: -5.19%
Looking at these statistics, you may be wondering how in the world I
came up with these numbers? Well, the way I came up with them is I
compared each currency against the 7 other currencies, then I derived
an average from that. This way, we can not only know how a currency
performed against one other currency, but we can know the average
against all the other 7 majors.
I actually requested a programmer to build me a calculator to do that.
This way I could see in one snapshot the overall picture for today or
yesterday, or for last week, or last month, or any custom date. And we
are actually going to offer this calculator as free tool for our
ForexPeaceArmy community. Wait for an announcement on that sometime
this month. I believe this tool would improve your trading.
Anyway, sorry about that, it seems like I got a bit carried away here. Let's go back to our GBP/CHF short.
Here is the situation. The UK economy has been put in a tough
situation. Their inflation is going up, while their overall economy is
slowing down. So there has been a lot of uncertainty about the UK
interest rate which is at 5.00%, which is still very high, comparing to
the rest of the world.
So what has happened, is in the month of June, GBP has actually gained
value, because there were speculations of further rate hikes. You may
be surprised to hear that, because it seems like GBP/USD is going down.
The reason it's going down is that US dollar has gained even more value
than GBP. But if you compare GBP against all the other 7 majors, and
derive an average, it's actually gained around 1.06%, just in 10 days,
which is a lot.
So to make the long story short, the market is currently pricing in
rate hikes from the UK, which are highly unlikely, so if there is a cut
in the next 3 months, it would be a big surprise, and the pound will
lose a lot of value.
On the other hand, the Swiss government seems to be very happy about
their interest rate of 2.75%, and the market is still pricing a
possible cut by the end of the year. Regardless of it, the CHF has
gained 1% in May, and already gained 1.86% in June comparing to the
average of the other 7 majors.
So we are definitely seeing a solid trend of falling pound, and solid
trend of rising Swiss Frank. Please note that the pound is falling,
despite their high interest rate, and if they cut, it would only
aggravate the fall. On the other hand, the Swiss Frank is rising,
despite the fact that there are talks about possibility of rate cut by
the end of the year. So if they decide to stay on hold, or even hike,
it would only put fuel into already rising frank.
I hope I am making sense here, and of course once that calculator is
posted, you will be able to have a very invaluable tool to your
trading.
That's all I have to say for this month. Next month, July, one of my
friends who is managing a fund of several hundred million promised to
write up his take on the forex market I personally look forward to that analysis.
What do you think about what I said about Pound and Frank? I'd love to hear your feedback and your 10 cents on the issue.
Thanks
-Felix
Source:
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/
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Hi there my Forex friend
Preview/Review on YouTube:
Hi-Quality Preview/Review:
7-1-2008R-P.swf
Long-term Outlook:
7-1-2008LTflwup.swf
Let's first review what happened earlier today.
Canadian GDP came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade. The market almost did not react.
Chicago PMI came out very close to expectations too.
Let's talk about Tuesday then.
1. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (12:30 a.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 12:30 a.m. we will have Australian Interest Rate statement. It is
expected they will hold the rates at 7.25% but there is a little chance
we will get a surprise here. If they hike the rates t 7.50%, it would
be a buy signal on AUD/USD, good for 75 to 100 pips or so. If they cut
the rates, I would sell AUD/USD and look for the same targets.
2a. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2:00 a.m. we will have U.K. Nationwide House Prices m/m. It is expected to come out at -1 and I would use 0.5 trigger
here. Two months ago it deviated by -0.6 and we saw good 35 pips move
down (and eventually 55 pips) on GBP/USD but the other month we had
-2.0 trigger and GBP/USD by 25 pips or so. This might be a good scalping
opportunity. If it comes out at -1.5% or lower (more negative), I would
sell GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at
-0.5% or less negative (or positive), I would buy GBP/USD and look for
30 pips or so.
2b. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
Also at 2:00 a.m. we will have German Retail Sales m/m. I would like to
trade with with around 1.2 trigger. If it comes out at 2.0% or higher,
you may buy EUR/USD and look for 30 pips move. If it comes out at -0.5%
or lower, I would sell EUR/USD and look for 30 pips move as well. Last
month with -2.3 deviation EUR/USD made 50 pips.
3. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI coming out. I would not trade it.
4. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Manufacturing Index coming out. It is expected to come out at 48.5, and I would use 1.2 trigger
here. If it comes out at 49.7 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY; if it
comes out at 47.5 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips
or more in the first 30 minutes. Usually this indicator moves USD/JPY
very well but last month we had only 20 pips move.
5. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales coming out. This
might not be a killer trade because of the interest rate statement we
would have nearly a day earlier but it might be worthy to give a try.
It is expected to come out at 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher,
I would buy AUD/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at
-0.2% or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips
move as well.
I also encourage you to watch a special video where Sir PIps is talking
about long term trading. The link is provided at the beginning of this
post.
That's all for Tuesday.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education
where Sir Pips or Magister Pips are trading all of mentioned indicators
live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other
traders that are there. They post trade plans and talk about the trades
as well as they give entry and exit signal live while the market moves.
You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is
free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow
you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at
least give a try. Worst case scenario, you will learn something and get
all your money back.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot & Crazy Cat
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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More...
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Link di bawah ini adalah file excell yang berisi daftar news yang layak untuk di trade yang berasal dari 6 negara yang terkuat mata uangnya. Yaitu US, UK, Euro, Canada, New Zealand dan Australia. File ini dibuat oleh salah satu aktivis News Trader di Forex Factory yaitu "BigMac" dan menurut saya sudah merangkum semua News yang tradeable. Tinggal kita update sekiranya ada News dimasa datang yang layak untuk kita perhatikan. Semoga bermanfaat  KLIK DISINI UNTUK DOWNLOAD
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